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2.5-ton heat pump & AC cost
A 2.5-ton system moves 30,000 BTU per hour. Below: what 2.5-ton equipment lists for online today, and what a DOE national-lab benchmark says it should cost installed.
Installed-cost benchmark by system type and efficiency
REMDB (National Laboratory of the Rockies, formerly NREL) replacement-cost regressions, restated from 2023 dollars with CPI-U. National averages: high-cost metros run above them. Ductwork, permits beyond the norm and panel work are not included. Method
| System type | Standard | Mid-tier inverter | High-efficiency / cold-climate | Listed equipment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central heat pump (ducted split) | $13,728 $7,634–$19,823 | $16,235 $9,138–$23,331 | $18,536 $10,519–$26,554 | $3,148 |
| Mini-split heat pump | $14,785 $8,871–$20,699 | $15,212 $9,127–$21,297 | $15,833 $9,500–$22,166 | — |
| Central AC + gas furnace | $10,577 $7,640–$14,047 | $12,571 $8,836–$16,840 | $14,873 $10,217–$20,062 | — |
| Heat pump only (outdoor unit swap) | $6,670 $3,812–$10,672 | $6,670 $3,812–$10,672 | $6,670 $3,812–$10,672 | — |
"Heat pump only" assumes the outdoor unit alone is replaced; its range is anchored on listed condenser prices, not REMDB, and is an estimate. AC + furnace assumes an 80,000 BTU/h, 80% AFUE furnace.
2.5-ton systems with listed prices
| System | Type | Tons | SEER2 | HSPF2 | Rating source | Lowest listed | Retailer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trane A5HP4030A1 | Ducted heat pump | 2.5 | 14.3 | 7.8 | listing | $3,148 | HVACDirect |
Is 2.5 tons the right size?
Tonnage should come from a room-by-room load calculation (ACCA Manual J), not from square footage alone. Insulation, windows, air leakage, ceiling height and climate can move the answer by a ton or more. An oversized system short-cycles, dehumidifies poorly and costs more up front; an undersized one runs constantly on design days.
If your contractor matched the old unit's size without a load calculation, ask for one. If two contractors quote different tonnages for the same house, ask both to show their Manual J.
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